A Slice of Fried Gold

Oscar Predictions

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Alright, with the Oscars coming up oh so quickly, I figured I would throw down my predictions for the evenings awards. I think its been a great year for movies, and I'm really excited for tonight as I think a lot of categories are really up for grabs. Namely the Best Picture category, as I could legitimately see any of the nominees pulling off the win tonight.

Best Picture

Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: Atonement

My initial thoughts on this category were Atonement pulling off the victory, and that was before I had seen it. Now that I've seen it and know that I love it, strangely enough I'm going to retract that idea. Before, I honestly believed that (to take a line from the movie) There Will Be Blood was going to drink No Country for Old Men's milkshake (line of the century? gotta be). I figured the PT Anderson fans and the Coen Brother fans would have a lot of overlap, and that both films would split the auteur vote and that typical Oscar fodder Atonement would pull off the win.
Lately though, there has been a bit of a downturn on Blood and an uptick on Old Men. I think its going to be enough for it to take the victory. I still think Atonement is the most likely upset candidate, but I'm afraid of the late buzz Juno is getting.

One note I want to make is this - If any of the big three (Atonement, No Country, Blood) win I will be happy. All are superlative movies that I think absolutely deserve it. Now if Juno or Michael Clayton win...well, then we have something to talk about. They are clearly outclassed in my eyes this year.

Best Director

Will win: The Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Once again, either winner would make me happy in this one. I really feel that the momentum has fully shifted to the Coen Brothers, but I think Anderson had a more difficult task and took more risks with Blood. Both were masterful, I just think that the Coen Brothers were really operating within their realm with Old Men - Anderson took a step out of his and had huge successes, and I think he should be rewarded for that.

Best Actor

Will win and should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

You know...word on the street is this Day-Lewis guy is pretty good at acting. The biggest thing to be said about his performance is that if you put any actor in that role, it would not have been nearly as good. Daniel Plainview was one of the most remarkably interesting characters in recent memory, and Day-Lewis was him. When he was on the screen (which was nearly every scene) you could see the wheels turning, the angles being calculated, every opportunity being analyzed. His performance was nothing short of genius, and he deserves the win he will assuredly get tonight. This is the second biggest sure shot.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win and should win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

This is the biggest sure shot. No one else has a chance in this category, which is astounding because all five performances are fantastic. Bardem was just incredible, and his role was simply the best out of anyone in this category this year. Anton Chigurh was a villain for the ages, and I couldn't imagine any other actor making his twisted principles seem almost palatable like Bardem did.

I just want to note once again though, all four other nominees were incredible in their roles. Casey Affleck gave the most unheralded performance of any nominee, but was probably the second best. Hal Holbrook was a heartbreaker, Philip Seymour Hoffman was incredibly hilarious, and Tom Wilkinson nailed it like he does every other performance. Too bad they're up against Bardem.

Best Actress

Will win: Ellen Page, Juno
Should win: I don't know?

I've sadly only seen one of these movies. For that reason I'm going to abstain from giving my opinion, but I feel as if this is where Juno will get its win. I have a feeling that the two previous frontrunners (Marion Cotilliard and Julie Christie) are in movies that were not seen by enough Academy members, and that Page will get it as the crowd pleaser. She'll deserve it too, because that movie works because Page makes it work. She's a wunderkind, and she deserves every accolade she receives.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Should win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

This one is really any nominees game, but I feel like the early frontrunner will pull it off. Although I was not a huge fan of the performance, I really feel like the weight of her previous wins will pull Amy Ryan ahead of the pack. I would not be the least bit surprised if Swinton won, as she is a favorite of the industry and she did a great job. It would also be a fine spot for the Academy to give Clayton some spotlight, as it was one of the top nominees and it is going to get overshadowed elsewhere.

Best Original Screenplay

Will win and should win: Diablo Cody, Juno

This is the third biggest lock. Cody is pretty much guaranteed to win this, and she deserves it. Regardless of the fact that the first fifteen minutes are painfully "hip," overall she pretty much nails all of the characters and creates real, three dimensional people. Its quirky for sure, but it packs a lot of heart. Its quite often difficult to reconcile those two sides, but Cody did it very well and deserves to be recognized for it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win and should win: The Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men

The Coen Brothers managed to make this sprawling crime story with many characters work perfectly, and they managed to adapt it so it felt like a Coen Brothers movie, but still like the original work. Some are turned off by the ending, but when watched and putting extra mental emphasis on Tommy Lee Jones sections, the ending works perfectly. The ability to continuously get new things on repeated viewings I believe is thanks to this wonderful script, and I really hope they get recognized for their work.

Best Animated Feature

Will win and should win: Ratatouille

I hear Pixar is good at making movies. Ratatouille is right up there with the best they've ever made, and some will argue it should have been nominated for Best Picture, not just best Animated Feature.

You'll get no disagreement from me.

Best Original Score

Will win and should win: Dario Marianelli, Atonement

This is flat out one of the best scores I've ever heard. As much as I love Michael Giacchino's work on Ratatouille, the inventiveness of Marianelli's score and the genius that is his Elegy for Dunkirk is too much for Giacchino to overtake. Its a hauntingly beautiful work, and Atonement wouldn't be nearly as great as it is without it.

Best Original Song

Will win and should win: Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, "Falling Slowly," Once

The fact that Glen Hansard is one of the coolest people alive does not affect my voting. Nor does the fact I saw this performed live with a girl from the audience subbing for Marketa. This is an absolutely incredible song, and it will get the recognition it deserves tonight. I for one cannot wait to hear them perform it.

Although it will be really fun watching Amy Adams perform her trio of songs from Enchanted. That girl is amazing.

That's all the categories I will do, but I'm excited for tonight and will check back in later with results to see how I did. Enjoy Oscar Night!


patrick said...

Atonement was a great flick; it looked and felt a lot like Pride and Prejudice… come to think of it, both movies have the same director, leading lady, both are based on books and both take place in England

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